In recent weeks, the buzz around freshman quarterback CJ Carr has been growing rapidly, and deservedly so. Even his incomplete passes have impressed the college football world. His best throw of the season came last week against NC State. Pinned 45 yards from the end zone on the left hashmark, Carr delivered a picture-perfect pass into tight end Eli Raridon’s route path. The play set up a short rushing touchdown for running back Jeremiyah Love.
Throws like this have become routine for Carr. Prior to slicing through the Boise State defense, Broncos head coach Spencer Danielson was aware of the talent his team was up against. “CJ is going to be a future first-round draft pick. I don’t think I’m the first one who will say that,” Danielson said ahead of the game.
Offering a similar praise, ESPN senior writer Dan Wetzel tweeted during the Arkansas game, “I am not a NFL Draft expert, and this is just his fourth game, but based on his accuracy, touch, athleticism, and reading of defenses, it would not surprise me if Notre Dame’s CJ Carr was the first overall pick in 2027.”
Carr’s performances have many around the nation wondering what is Carr’s ceiling? While some see him as a sure-fire future first-rounder, others like Wetzel believe his potential goes much higher than that. All of these comments have inspired me to take a deep-dive on Carr’s NFL Draft prospects.
2026 NFL Draft
Although he’s ineligible for the 2026 Draft, it’s still fun to imagine how Carr stacks up against this year’s class.
ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. recently named his top quarterbacks in the class: Oregon's Dante Moore, Indiana's Fernando Mendoza, Alabama's Ty Simpson, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers and Oklahoma's John Mateer in that order. Carson Beck of Miami, Garrett Nussmeier of LSU, Arizona State's Sam Leavitt, USC's Jayden Maiava and the injured Penn State Nittany Lion Drew Aller round out the top-ten. Surprisingly, Missouri’s Beau Pribula didn’t make the list.
Moore, Mendoza and Simpson all have the edge over Carr as of today. Moore has great mechanics, Mendoza has all the physical tools, and Simpson, like Carr, can place the ball in really tight windows. All three project as potential day-one starters in the NFL.
Sellers and Mateer present a more interesting argument. Sellers has shown signs of inaccuracy and was caught holding on to the ball for too long against LSU last week. Granted, the Gamecocks’ offensive line isn’t amazing. However, he still shows flashes of being the Heisman candidate he was hyped up to be before the season. If Sellers really wants to improve his draft stock, transferring to a better supporting environment would do him wonders.
Mateer was on a tear to start the season, but has battled an injury and thrown as many interceptions as he has touchdowns. He’s got a strong arm, but like Sellers, has to release the ball quicker.
With Carr’s accuracy and natural leadership at the line of scrimmage, he clearly falls into this mix. It may be bullish to suggest Carr would be a top-five quarterback in this year’s class, but he’s certainly in the mix with the guys on the outside looking in at the first round.
2027 NFL Draft
Here we go. The draft class that Carr is actually eligible for. The class in which Carr is a legitimate contender to be the number one overall selection.
His competition comes from far and wide. Florida’s DJ Lagway, Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola and Texas’ Arch Manning were seen as the big-three for this class headed into the season. Now, about halfway through the regular season, the script has been flipped.
Given none of the top quarterbacks in the 2026 class decide to play another year of college football, Carr’s top competition comes from Ohio State’s Julian Sayin. Nick Saban recently called Sayin the best quarterback in college football. That says plenty about the Buckeye signal caller.
After being thrust into the spotlight following a solid performance against Texas in Week 1, Sayin has exploded. He’s thrown for 1,479 yards, 15 touchdowns and three interceptions this season, and his 86.5 QBR is ranked fourth in the country. Sayin also has an insanely accurate arm. His career adjusted completion percentage of 82.2% would rank him first of the 120+ quarterbacks in Gridiron grading’s database.
Carr posts a very similar stat line. He’s recorded 1,622 yards, 13 touchdowns and three interceptions, while maintaining an 11th-best 83.6 QBR.
Carr has also played two top-four teams in No. 2 Miami and No. 4 Texas A&M in his first two games as a starter. He displayed all the confidence in the world with his scrambling improvisation against Miami before posting a 20/32, 293-yard performance against the Aggies. Since then, Carr has improved tenfold.
The Irish wide receiving group is widely considered one of Notre Dame’s best in recent memory. A large part to their success has been the ability of Carr to find them and then quickly deliver the ball to them. His early-season decision-making mishaps have disappeared, and he’s only gotten more comfortable under center.
So that leaves the final question: Sayin or Carr? Who is QB1 in 2027? Well, Sayin’s the man in charge on the best team in the nation. If the Buckeyes are to win the national championship again, it will be hard to predict anyone jumping Sayin in 2027. However, it’s worth noting that he has an unreal group of wide receivers. Jeremiah Smith was on the cover of EA's College Football 26 and is also not eligible for selection until 2027. Junior Buckeye receiver Carnell Tate is one of the best wideouts in the country. While Carr has great weapons, Sayin has several first-rounders running routes for him.
What Carr possesses is a sharp football mind, experience against two of the best teams in the country and an NFL-level arm. He’s on track to produce one of the best quarterbacking seasons in Notre Dame history, which is made even more impressive when considering the program’s historic line of greats. The battle between the two is close, but for now, Carr has the slight edge. If he keeps on progressing at the rate he is, Carr won’t just be any first-round quarterback in 2027. He will be the first-overall quarterback.
