Why has Chalk Madness made its return for a second straight year?
I said in my first bracket preview I knew my bracket wouldn’t be perfect. I told myself that I wouldn’t be upset when my bracket got busted this year. But I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a little sad when I went 1-for-3 on my first round upset picks. I was even more upset when none of my four Cinderella picks made it to the second weekend. Nevertheless, the Sweet Sixteen has arrived, and I can take solace in the fact that all of my Final Four picks are still in it. But first, there’s been quite the pressing issue plaguing the NCAA Tournament in recent years: What happened to the Cinderella?
The death of the Cinderella
This year, all 16 teams remaining are from the five power conferences of college basketball: SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, Atlantic Coast and Big East. The first four are more common because of their prevalence in football, but the Big East has historically been one of the greatest college basketball conferences. Last season ended a 49-year streak of at least one non-power conference team making at least the Sweet Sixteen. It was an anomaly. Then it happened again in 2026.
So, what on Earth has happened to the Cinderella? The answer can be found in the latest trends of not only college basketball, but college athletics as a whole.
The only teams left with a case to be Cinderella are No. 11 seed Texas, No. 9 seed Iowa and No. 4 seed Nebraska. Texas, while being an No. 11 seed, is not a Cinderella. Their endowment is second only to Harvard. Their athletics have a storied history, and their football has one of the largest NIL budgets in the country. Iowa and Nebraska have slightly better cases. Iowa upended No. 1 seed Florida on a last-second 3-pointer, while Nebraska had never won an NCAA Tournament game prior to this season. But something about these three teams just doesn’t scratch the Cinderella itch, and leaves fans wondering what changed.
Mid-majors seem to have fallen off the map in recent years, and three factors can be held responsible. The first two are the obvious culprits in college athletics: NIL and the transfer portal. Athletes at smaller schools are naturally enticed by the opportunities of bigger schools monetarily and professionally to change their lives by transferring. The third comes from another angle. Mid-majors in college basketball suffer from modern football conference re-alignment and scheduling.
No team has been a greater example of this than Miami (Ohio). The Redhawks went an astounding 31-0 in the regular season and finally dropped their first game of the season in a shocking upset loss to UMass in the Mid-American Conference tournament quarterfinal. The last team to end a regular season unbeaten was Gonzaga in the 2020-21 season, and they were rewarded with a No. 1 seed. Miami was rewarded for an incredible season with a debate of whether or not they should even make the tournament, followed by an No. 11 seed and a trip to Dayton for the First Four as one of the last four teams to qualify for the tournament. That lack of respect doesn’t exclusively stem from a shift in the basketball world. Now, should Miami have been a top seed? Absolutely not. But that doesn’t mean that outstanding achievement should not be rewarded.
Conference ties have become the priority, and teams outside of power conferences receive less respect due to strength of schedule, perceived roster strength and a host of other factors. Miami won zero Quad 1 and 2 games and was power ranked well below the remaining at large teams, due to their scheduling and conference opponents. College basketball has been a sport where any team can win any given game, and the very existence of Cinderellas is evidence enough for that. The strength of schedule argument is particularly concerning for the future of mid-majors as their limited opportunities to prove merit decreases with the modern changes of schedules.
Previewing the Sweet Sixteen
This weekend will see the remaining 16 teams duke it out in the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight, with regional semifinal play beginning Thursday. Let’s take a look at each matchup, along with who I’m picking to go to the Elite Eight and why.
Thursday
West Region: No. 11 Texas vs. No. 2 Purdue. Texas may be the “Cinderella” of the tournament to some, but I don’t buy it. Their luck has to run out eventually. Purdue has been humming since the beginning of the Big Ten tournament and even before as they finished the season on a strong note, so I’ll take Braden Smith and the Boilermakers to the Elite Eight.
West Region: No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 1 Arizona. To me, this is the game of the day on Thursday. John Calipari and Darius Acuff have brought Arkansas basketball to its highest point since the 1994 national championship. Acuff scored a dazzling 36 points in the round of 32 game against High Point. On the other hand, Arizona has embodied consistency thus far, winning the Big 12 and consistently proving arguably the highest floor in all of college basketball. I’ll take the Wildcats.
South Region: No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 4 Nebraska. Who would’ve thought that arguably the biggest Iowa-Nebraska matchup of the last 15 years would be on the hardwood and not the gridiron? This game just screams a good time. I’ve heard that it may begin with a ceremonial punt in honor of the offensive football woes, but, Nebraska has shown that their fanbase travels better than any team in the tournament. The Cornhuskers set a new decibel record in the Oklahoma City Thunder’s home arena, so give me Nebraska to continue the streak.
South Region: No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Houston. This matchup comes down to the duel between Illinois’ offense and Houston’s defense. In a game taking place in Houston, I’ve got to give the edge to the home team. I’m pleasantly surprised Illinois got this far, but their time has come. The Cougars will stifle the Illini and advance to the Elite Eight.
Friday
East Region: No. 5 St. John’s vs. No. 1 Duke. This is the game of the weekend. Two storied programs square off in the biggest Pitino vs. Duke matchup since Christian Laettner sent Rick Pitino and Kentucky packing in the 1992 Elite Eight. Duke has struggled at times this tournament, and if St. John’s can score, they have a good chance to earn the upset. I may have taken Duke to win it all a week ago, but give me the Johnnies to win one for their coach.
East Region: No. 3 Michigan State vs No. 2 UConn. This game features another loaded coaching matchup between Tom Izzo and Dan Hurley. Since their loss to St. John’s in the Big East Tournament final, the Huskies have looked improved and primed for another deep tournament run. Michigan State is no pushover, but I have to favor the experience of Hurley and the Huskies here.
Midwest Region: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Michigan. After their loss in the Big Ten Tournament final, Michigan has looked like they could be playing their best brand of basketball. Their dispatching of St. Louis really proved that in round two. The loss of Aden Holloway has to bite Alabama back eventually, so I give the edge to the Wolverines here.
Midwest Region: No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Iowa State. The Vols have flown under the radar throughout this tournament, but now they find themselves squaring off with an angry defensive juggernaut Iowa State team. The Cyclones are back on the tear they carried into their heartbreaker against Arizona and are hungry for more. Tennessee has been very quietly good, but Iowa State wins this one.
