For the second time in four years under Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame football is 0-2. The bad start in 2022, although it included a loss to Marshall, was more understandable given the inevitable growing pains of a new starting quarterback and a first-year head coach.
This year’s 0-2 start, however, is much more puzzling. It’s not that Notre Dame lost the games in the first place. You can live with losses of three points and one point to two teams in play for deep postseason runs. It’s how Notre Dame lost to Miami and Texas A&M, allowing 68 total points, including 41 at home to the Aggies.
At this point, you may not want to hear about the College Football Playoff until Notre Dame fixes its defensive problem — let alone until it wins a game. That’s fair. But for now, the outlook for the season’s final 10 games are very murky. Some are certain that a return to the postseason is out of the question, while others feel that a 10-game Irish win streak would be enough to sneak in.
My belief is that Notre Dame, as currently constructed, will not make the College Football Playoff. How can a team that just gave up 41 at home possibly string together 10 consecutive wins? Then again, in the week following Notre Dame’s loss to Northern Illinois last season, I didn’t have that team reaching the National Championship Game. In reality, everything is still in play. The only question is whether or not the landscape of college football allows the ceiling to be a CFP berth.
Opponent quality
For a power program like Notre Dame, going 11-1 will always get you into the Playoff, regardless of whether a high-quality win appears in your record. The 2021 Irish team, which lost a single game and beat 9-4 Wisconsin at a neutral site for its best win, ended the year as the fifth-ranked team in the country. Two losses and a mediocre body of wins, however, certainly aren’t enough to instantly punch a ticket to the 12-team dance.
I bring this up because 2025 Notre Dame already has two losses and, for the moment, an unimpressive remaining schedule. At No. 25, USC lines up as the only currently ranked team the Irish will see the rest of the way (the Trojans will come to town on Oct. 18). If you want to see Notre Dame as a Playoff lock with two losses, you’d better root hard for every opponent on Notre Dame’s schedule to drastically improve their own position in the eyes of the committee.
To what extent can Notre Dame’s opponents do that? Let’s start with the two quality losses. At No. 4 in the nation, Miami already appears to be one of college football’s elites. And if they can beat No. 7 Florida State on the road three Saturdays from now, the Hurricanes would guarantee themselves a top-three ranking (barring a major upset) entering the ACC Championship. Texas A&M, meanwhile, has a more complicated road. Three of A&M’s final five games are road tilts against ranked opponents – No. 3 LSU on Oct. 25, No. 23 Missouri on Nov. 8 and No. 8 Texas on Nov. 29. If the Aggies can go 1-2 in that stretch and win every other game they’ll be favored in, they’ll still be a surefire Playoff team when the season ends.
What about Notre Dame’s upcoming opponents? I would write off Purdue, Boise State, Boston College, Navy and Stanford as probable non-factors. Only by beating Notre Dame can any of those teams make a serious push for the national top 15, and we already know that one more Irish loss would kill their postseason prospects.
In its 41-35 loss at No. 17 Ole Miss, Arkansas showed some real potential — not only to make a mess of Notre Dame’s porous defense but also to contend with the big boys of the SEC. The Razorbacks will have plenty of chances to do that, playing six of their final seven games against ranked opponents. It’ll be tough, however, as after a loss to Notre Dame, Arkansas would have to at the very least beat two of Tennessee, LSU and Texas on the road to avoid a four-loss season.
NC State could realistically carry only one loss into November, when it’ll face Georgia Tech, Miami and Florida State — three ACC teams all ranked above the Irish. As mentioned before, USC has the highest potential to improve Notre Dame’s schedule quality, but it’ll have to navigate a minefield of road games. Split your four games at No. 9 Illinois, No. 24 Notre Dame, Nebraska and No. 6 Oregon, and we’re definitely talking about the Trojans as a CFP contender — albeit in direct competition with the Irish.
Neither Pittsburgh nor Syracuse look promising after early-season losses, but both will play the likes of Miami and Georgia Tech in the second half, affording the Panthers and Orange a shot at reaching the top 25.
Last year’s evidence
What did the College Football Playoff committee think about two-loss teams last year? There certainly were plenty of them, including national champion Ohio State, whose 2024 body of work wasn’t all that different from what 2025 Notre Dame’s could become.
Last year, the Buckeyes went 10-2 in the regular season, losing by a combined four points at Big Ten champion Oregon and at home against Michigan. That sounds a lot like the losses Notre Dame already has this year, although I’d consider the mid-September Texas A&M loss a much “better” result than a late-November loss to Michigan. Ohio State’s wins outclass Notre Dame’s potential victories, though, as the Buckeyes defeated top-10 foes Penn State and Indiana in the final month. Ultimately, despite missing their conference championship game entirely, the 2024 Buckeyes received the No. 8 seed in the College Football Playoff, providing an immediate glimmer of hope for how 10-2 Notre Dame could be viewed come December.
Ohio State’s opponent, Tennessee, also made the Playoff as a 10-2 squad that missed conference championship weekend. The Volunteers didn’t end the season with that strong of a resume at all, beating 6-7 Oklahoma on the road early on and a three-loss Alabama team for their strongest wins while losing at 7-6 Arkansas and SEC champion Georgia. Tennessee still comfortably reached the CFP as the No. 9 seed, though, providing more evidence to support 10-2 Notre Dame.
Now for the 10-2 teams that did not receive an invitation, Miami and BYU. The Hurricanes did not beat anyone better than 9-4 Louisville and 8-5 Florida, and their losses came in November to non-juggernauts Georgia Tech and Syracuse. Notre Dame already has 2024 Miami beat simply by the quality and timing of its two losses.
The timing of BYU’s losses also hurt the Cougars, who dropped back-to-back contests against 5-7 Kansas and eventual Big 12 champion Arizona State in the second half of November. BYU did have a high-quality win at SMU very early on but didn’t beat any other notables — Arizona State could have been that second key victory.
The verdict
Of course, it’s only mid-September, and there’s no predicting what the rest of the college football world will look like come Dec. 7. But it is quite obvious that a 10-2 Notre Dame, if one of its future opponents enters the top 20 or if several become ranked, will make the College Football Playoff. However, if teams like Arkansas, NC State or USC face second-half slides — or even if Miami or Texas A&M fade in November — it’s no guarantee that the Irish get in.
Although the season would be over for the Irish with three losses, it’s not done with two. However, Notre Dame has got to play perfect football from here on out and receive some help from both its opponents and from the elites of the Big Ten and SEC, who must make sure that fringe Playoff teams near the Irish cannot win a conference championship.
