The AP Poll has seemingly attempted to be predictive throughout the course of the season instead of simply analyzing the resumes of teams. This system of evaluating programs not for their on-field production, but for the expectation of their future in a way to “justify” your rankings later on is disappointing to see for any college football fan. Notre Dame has been a beneficiary team of this system, but that does not make it right or accurate.
After the 36-7 home victory against NC State on Saturday, the Irish moved to No. 13, theoretically two spots out of the College Football Playoff. If you had told a fan after the Texas A&M and Miami losses that by Week Seven, you would nearly be in the playoffs, they would have called you crazy. So what changed?
Notre Dame’s victory showcased an improved defense, a balanced offensive attack, special teams trickery and an ability to win turnovers. However, simply because the Irish have won four games in a row does not warrant jumping to No. 13. I know Irish fans are excited to already be on the verge of the playoffs, but without a ranked win this season ahead of USC, I don’t see how the AP Poll evaluation of the Irish is accurate.
Let’s examine the Irish games so far this season. They opened the season on the road against No. 10 Miami at the time and lost 27-24. Miami has since vaulted up to No. 2 as it has dismantled ranked Florida State and South Florida while also defeating Florida since besting the Irish in Week One. After a bye week, the Irish took on Texas A&M in the home opener and lost a heartbreaking 41-40 game as A&M scored in the final seconds. The game would have been sent to overtime if not for senior quarterback Tyler Buchner muffing the go-ahead extra point attempt that would have given the Irish a 41-34 lead. So, in terms of losses, the Irish have lost to two top-five teams by a combined four points, but what value do heartbreaking close losses hold?
In the last three weeks, we have seen a perennial contender in Penn State implode after a nail-biter double-overtime loss to Oregon in the Whiteout game. After losing last week to winless UCLA, the Nittany Lions fell completely out of the rankings as a two-loss team. Texas also fell out of the rankings after losing to Florida on the road from being in the top 10, as the Longhorns picked up their second loss. I know how you lose and who it comes against matters, but to see the Irish vault six spots to No. 16 a week ago in front of undefeated and one-loss teams that have considerably stronger wins was puzzling.
The Irish have compiled victories of 56-30 against Purdue, 56-13 against Arkansas, 28-7 against Boise State and 36-7 against NC State. Covering the Vegas point spread in all four wins shows a considerable improvement defensively, holding opponents under two touchdowns three times after the Purdue game. Despite this improvement, none of these opponents have sniffed the rankings. Ahead of a season-defining game against No. 20 USC, the Irish should be the underdog to “prove” why they deserve to be in the Playoff instead of being expected to beat a 5-1 team that just obliterated ranked Michigan.
Odds, point spreads and favorability are certainly taken into preseason rankings as a benchmark for a skeleton of a top 25. Seven weeks into the season, this method of prediction is still being used, leaving questions about the validity of the AP Poll’s methods. 6-0 BYU, with wins over four power conference teams, is ranked two spots below the Irish. Oklahoma is even ranked one spot below the Irish. The Sooners were No. 6 last week after losing a rivalry game to Texas with a banged-up quarterback, and they were expected to lose by all odds-making platforms. Vanderbilt dismantled ranked South Carolina on the road and lost to Alabama, as did Missouri 27-24, and both are also slotted below the Irish. Even the Irish’s rival USC is ranked below them after handling ranked Michigan at home in dominating fashion, with their only loss coming on the road with a last-second field goal to Illinois. Texas is back in the ranking at No. 21 after beating Oklahoma. In terms of resumes, Texas now has a victory against a top-10 team and losses on the road to No. 1 Ohio State and Florida in what is widely considered one of the toughest road atmospheres in college football; both of these losses were only by a touchdown. If you take any of these resumes without the logo and preseason expectations, I think most people would have a hard time arguing Notre Dame deserved to be ranked ahead of many one-loss teams.
I am not arguing that all of these teams are better teams than the Irish, but we have to consider the on-field production. A ranked road win should be more important to your ranking than a close, ranked loss.
One of the biggest reasons for the Irish’s ranking is the system of power ratings. Notre Dame is currently ranked No. 4 in the country by both Sports Illustrated and ESPN, behind Ohio State, Indiana and Alabama in power ratings. This metric most clearly depicts which teams would be favored on a neutral field, showing the revered prowess of Notre Dame’s players, coaching staff and culture despite being a two-loss team. The power rankings are important for sports gambling and media coverage behind the scenes of the national rankings. It does not seem fair to think they should be heavily considered in Week Seven of college football rankings.
Why do the AP Poll rankings matter? The AP Poll controls the rankings until the College Football Playoff ranking that selects the 12 teams for the Playoff first appears after the first weekend in November. The rankings heavily impact which schools will be chosen for College GameDay, how the media covers games in their entirety, fan attendance and how programs are perceived. For example, if USC were ranked higher for the Holy War rivalry, the Irish could have been given College GameDay. This biased ranking system most prominently impacts schools without rich college football history or high recruiting rankings that deserve to be judged more fairly.
If the Irish theoretically win out over the course of the season, I am in no way arguing that they should not make the Playoff or at least be fairly considered or scrutinized alongside the rest of the two-loss teams. To say, however, that the Irish right now have a borderline playoff resume is quite frankly puzzling. While Notre Dame is once again a beneficiary of the AP Poll ranking, it does not make the AP Poll objectively accurate or, most importantly, fair.
