It is among the best times of the year in all of sports. Some may even argue the very best. March has arrived, we have a bracket and suddenly everyone is a college basketball expert. Myself included.
I know just as well as anyone else that my bracket won’t be perfect, but that won’t stop me from hoping. So, having spent the last week and a half contemplating the insanity of conference tournaments and the bracket, I feel qualified. Without further ado, here are my “expert” picks on upsets, Cinderellas and the Final Four. Copy at your own risk.
Upset Picks
My first pick takes us to Greenville, S.C., and the South region. Hubert Davis and the No. 6 seed North Carolina Tar Heels take on the Atlantic 10 Champion the No. 11-seeded VCU Rams. The Heels are notably without star freshman Caleb Wilson, sporting a 5-3 mark over the eight games they’ve played since his injury. Meanwhile, VCU is rolling. The Rams enter the tournament on a six-game winning streak that saw them blitz through the A-10 tournament. This game comes down to three-point shooting and turnovers, both of which VCU has a notable advantage in. They have just an 8% turnover percentage in their last five games — the nation’s best. Simultaneously, North Carolina has forced noticeably fewer turnovers since losing Wilson. The Rams have also shot 39% from beyond the arc in their last five, an ominous matchup for the Tar Heels’ No. 300-ranked three-point defense. I’ve got VCU taking down the blue blood in this one.
Up next, one of the hottest upset picks of the tournament brings us to Buffalo, N.Y., and the East region, to another 6-11 matchup. The No. 11 AAC champion South Florida Bulls are among the hottest teams in the country, averaging a 14.7-point margin of victory over that span. On the other hand, the No. 6 Louisville Cardinals are 4-4 in their last eight games. I was originally hesitant to pick the Bulls, but it feels much more plausible with the announcement that Louisville’s star freshman Mikel Brown Jr. is out with a back injury. Statistically, the matchup favors USF. Both teams are fast-paced, but the Cardinals rank No. 61 while the Bulls rank No. 15. Similar to the UNC-VCU matchup, three-point shooting also factors in. Louisville has the fifth-most three-point attempts per game in the nation, but USF holds opponents to just 33.9% from downtown. Another interesting tidbit is that South Florida ranks No. 3 in offensive rebounds per game and averages 17.8 second-chance points per game. It may be a trendy pick, but it certainly looks like USF has what it takes to dance into round two.
My third and final big upset pick arrives in beautiful Tampa, Fla., where I’ve got the No. 12-seeded Akron Zips upending the No. 5-seeded Texas Tech Red Raiders in what looks to be a great Midwest region draw for Zippy. Akron enters the tournament after an unprecedented third straight MAC tournament championship but is without a win in its last two appearances. The Zips are due and have got exactly what it takes to take down the JT Toppin-less Red Raiders. Since losing the first-team All-American, Texas Tech has struggled mightily. It rides a three-game losing skid into the tournament and now faces an offensively dominant Akron team. The Zips are No. 7 in the nation in scoring with 88.4 points per contest and No. 5 in offensive efficiency, ahead of Midwest No. 1 seed Michigan. They’re also a top 50 rebounding squad. This season, it looks like the third time will be the charm for Akron in the tournament.
Cinderella Picks
No term is more synonymous with March Madness than “Cinderella.” Almost every year, the clock waits to strike midnight on at least one underdog in the NCAA Tournament. Sometimes it’s a mid-major that shocks the world, while others are simply lower-seeded power conference teams. So, let’s take a look at one team I could see making a run in each region.
South: No. 5 Vanderbilt
The Vanderbilt Commodores are just as hot as any team in college basketball and have proved that they can beat the best of the best. They had an impressive 91-74 win over Florida in the Southeastern Conference Tournament and looked to have what it took to beat Arkansas despite falling short 86-75 the following night. Statistically, the Commodores take care of the ball just as well as any team in the country. They’re top 25 in overall turnovers per game and No. 11 over their last three matchups. In the tournament, I’ve got them taking down Florida in the Sweet 16 rubber match before falling to Houston in the Elite Eight.
East: No. 7 UCLA
The UCLA Bruins are among college basketball’s historical elites. The days of coach John Wooden may be long past, but I think this team has what it takes to make a run. Guard Donovan Dent appears poised to return healthy in the tournament and is a definite impact player. The Bruins will have to take down UConn in round two, but if they get past the Huskies, they’ve shown they can beat Tom Izzo and Michigan State. Then, I’ve got them upsetting UConn and finally falling to Duke in the Elite Eight.
Midwest: No. 12 Akron
As I said before, this Akron Zips team is due. Beyond their contest with Texas Tech, they face a favorable matchup no matter who wins Alabama’s game against Hofstra. The Tide’s recent controversy around guard Aden Holloway has left them vulnerable, and I could see Akron matching up well with either them or Hofstra. I think they make a Sweet 16 run, but No. 1 Michigan might be too much for them.
West: No. 7 Miami (FL)
Of the two Miami teams in the tournament, I think the Canes have the better odds of making a run. First-year head coach Jai Lucas is among the nation’s best young basketball minds. The team as a whole is physical, which could be its best or worst quality. It needs to do two things: make free throws and stay out of foul trouble. If the Canes can shock Purdue in round two and escape St. Louis, I see them making an Elite Eight run.
Final Four Picks
Last year was just the second time in NCAA Tournament history that the Final Four had all four No. 1 seeds. This year, I don’t see it happening again. So, who’s battling it out in Indianapolis for the national championship?
East: No. 1 Duke
The Duke Blue Devils, national championship favorites, are the top dog for a reason. The dynamic Cameron and Cayden Boozer twins powered them to a 32-2 regular season record and Coach Jon Scheyer’s second straight Atlantic Coast Conference tournament title. I think they get out of the loaded East and will be the Final Four’s most battle-tested team.
South: No. 2 Houston
Coach Kelvin Sampson is among the best in the business. This Houston Cougars team will want to avenge last year’s national championship loss to Florida, and they’ve got the perfect opportunity. This year, they have home-court advantage, as the South Regional is in Houston. I think they capitalize and return to the biggest stage.
West: No. 1 Arizona
This season, the Arizona Wildcats have been arguably the nation’s most consistent team. Since the beginning, they’ve had one of the highest floors in the country and were the final unbeaten team among the power conferences. To me, the West region is the weakest, and Arizona will capitalize.
Midwest: No. 2 Iowa State
The Iowa State Cyclones dropped a heartbreaker to Arizona in the Big 12 tournament on a buzzer-beater. But they obliterated everyone in their path up to that point and will be looking to make their first Elite Eight since 2000 and first Final Four since 1944. If any team can take down Michigan in the Midwest, it’s ISU.
National Champion: Duke
Iowa State will avenge its loss to Arizona in the semifinals, but the favorite Blue Devils take down Houston and win it all in a back-and-forth national championship battle game with the Cyclones, and show why they’ve been the team to beat all season.
